Probability
TIFR-CAM, August-December, 2026.
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Classes will be held from 9:00 AM to 10:30 AM on Mondays and 2:00 PM to 3:30 PM on Wednesdays and 9:00 AM to 10:30 AM on Fridays. One day a week will be left for a short quiz and tutorial (might change from week to week) and for clearing any doubts that you may have. Please send me your doubts before hand.
Assessment: Assessment will be based on assignments, quizes, the midterm and the final term. There is no provision for a re-exam.
Grading Scheme: 40 (Final term) + 25 (midterm) + 15 (assignments) + 20 (quizes); solutions from bonus problems can be used to improve the net midterm score. In any form of assessment (exam, assignment, quiz), inability to explain the solution will imply 0 on that form of assessment. For example, if you wrote a solution in your assignment which you can't explain, you will not just lose points for that assignment but for all assignments. This also sums up our policy with regard to the use of LLMs and AI in the course. I think the internet and LLMs are great places to learn material. However I would encourage you to talk to your friends, Debjit or me before you plug this into an LLM or search on the google. Getting stuck is a great way to learn.
Here is the conversion chart from marks to letter grades. More about the grading scheme can be found by following this
link.
| Letter Grade |
Marks range |
| O |
95-100 |
| A+ |
90-94 |
| A |
85-89 |
| B+ |
75-84 |
| B |
65-74 |
| C |
55-64 |
| P |
50-54 |
| F |
Below 50 |
We might take inspiration from the books by Durrett
"Probability theory and examples" and notes by Manjunath Krishnapu
"Link" . There are many nice books on the subject. Look also at Probability with Martingales by Williams and the two classical books by Feller.
The midterm will be held on Monday, the 5th of October from 9:00 AM to 10:30 AM.
Rough Lecture notes
Updated regularly but full of mistakes and ommissions. These are rough notes which I read from but does not have all the improvisations Notes
Handouts
Handout 1 by Debjit Ghoshal shared on August 3
Assignments
Please feel free to discuss with your fellow students but the solution must be understood and written on your own (note the policy above). Please do not search for the solutions on the internet. It helps no one (including you). The assignment needs to submitted by email to my Tifr address before the class (scan/tex either will do) or submitted to me in class. Further students are encouraged to attempt bonus questions. They might be used later in your assessment.
Assignment 1, due on 31 August before class: Link
Assignment 2, due on 28 September before class: Link
Assignment 3, due on 26 October before class: Link
Assignment 4, due on 16 November before class: Link
Assignment 5, due on 30 November before class: Link
Some Resources
Sleeping Beauty Problem
Monty Hall Problem
The Galton board: An illustration of the Central limit theorem
Notes : Kartick Samanta has been typing out notes for the course
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